printOverview
The recovery of the German economy continued unabatedly in 2011. Despite the negative news regarding the European debt and currency crisis, Germany’s GDP increased by 3 percent in 2011, according to information provided by the Federal Statistics Offi ce. For the fi rst time, German industrial exports passed the one billion Euros mark, turning Germany into Europe’s economic driving force for 2011. At the same time, unemployment declined to 7 percent on average over the year, reducing the number of unemployed to the lowest level in 20 years. This had a positive effect on consumer behaviour, as more people were willing to consider larger investments.
The German caravanning industry drew the full benefi t from these positive economic developments. Exports of German leisure vehicles grew by 13 percent in 2011. Domestic registrations of caravans grew by 11 percent, while registrations of motor caravans grew by as much as 20.1 percent. This development led to a signifi cant jump in revenues. With total revenues of EUR 5.76 billion in 2011, the German caravanning industry registered the best result in its history. Total revenues for the industry increased by 25.6 percent. Double-digit growth in all market segments contributed to this impressive result. Manufacturer revenues grew by 28.2 percent to EUR 2.96 billion for new vehicles. With respect to used leisure vehicles, dealers turned over EUR 2.25 billion, 24.7 percent more than in 2010. Similarly, the accessories business also increased by 16.5 percent to EUR 547 million. This means that Germany was also the strongest European performer in the caravanning market. The German caravanning industry consistently used the diffi cult years of 2009 and 2010 to build up stocks and also streamline and renew its product range. The excellent result for 2011 can also be attributed to these measures.
Prospects
The forecasts issued by leading economic institutes for the year 2012 are characterised by caution. The Munich-based Ifo Institut expects that Germany’s GDP will grow by only 0.4 percent. Similarly, the Weltwirtschaftsinstitut (HWWI) in Hamburg is also expecting growth of just 0.5 percent. In its outlook, the German Bundesbank is working with a growth figure of 0.6 percent, while the government is planning for one percent growth in 2012. The Ifo Institut views Germany’s stable labour market and expected higher incomes as supporting – albeit minimal – growth. Exports, on the other hand, would be supported more by overseas markets and less by the European domestic market. All of these forecasts are subject to events surrounding the European debt crisis. They rely on the assumption that the crisis will eventually be dealt with or at least not deteriorate any further.
Against this background, the expectations of the German caravanning industry also vary with regard to 2012 sales developments. Overall, manufacturers believe that domestic demand will see better growth than exports, and that there will be more domestic and international demand for motor caravans than caravans. The great majority of caravan manufacturers (91 percent) believe that caravan exports will decline in 2012. Expectations regarding domestic demand for caravans are more positive, as 25 percent expect to see growing demand, while another 42 percent expect demand to remain stable. The hope for 2012 is resting on motor caravans. Forty-eight percent of those surveyed think that sales of German motor caravans abroad will increase. Another 36 percent expect stable developments in international motor caravan markets. For the German motor caravan market, an impressive 62 percent of those surveyed expect growth, while another 31 percent expect to see stable developments.
Ralf Daelen
Commercial Director
Regina Vischer
Statistics, Adress Administration
Sabine Messinger
Statistics, Adress Administration
